Investozora macro regime signal · live analytical context
Mixed Expansion · current verified baselineThe signal starts from the newest verified official baseline available to this build and is replaced automatically by newer validated inflation, real growth and labor market observations. It summarizes direction across several macro inputs; it is an Investozora analytical classification, not an official government designation, recession call or investment recommendation.
Use this dashboard as a traceable U.S. economic research page. It brings together inflation, employment, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, real economic growth, household purchasing power and federal finances using data from the agencies that publish each series. Every major reading is shown with its measurement period, unit, source and update frequency. Historical charts keep the natural source frequency, so business day series remain business day data, monthly series remain monthly and quarterly series remain quarterly. This makes it easier to compare the latest reading with the path that came before it instead of seeing a number without context.
Official Data First: Investozora Calculations Are Clearly Labeled. Live and cached requests are checked against the originating publisher before they replace the visible baseline. Registered BLS and FRED credentials stay on the server, while browser readable Federal Reserve Bank of New York, U.S. Treasury and Treasury Fiscal Data feeds are checked independently. If a source is delayed or temporarily unavailable, the page keeps a dated official baseline rather than showing a blank value. Revisions remain part of the record, and formulas for Investozora derived measures are disclosed so readers can reproduce the result.
Latest official readings
U.S. economy at a glance
Read every headline with its reference period and publication frequency. Treasury yields and overnight reference rates are business day series; CPI and the Employment Situation are monthly; real GDP is quarterly; and federal fiscal series follow their Treasury publication schedules. The date, unit and revision status are part of the data—not footnotes to it. This section is a quick starting point: it shows the newest available readings across the main parts of the economy before the page moves into the full histories and source tables.
Rates & monetary policy
Inflation & growth
Labor & federal finances
Change monitor
What changed from the previous reading?
A level alone can hide the direction of travel. This comparison separates the latest official reading from the immediately preceding comparable observation. Changes are descriptive, not labels of “good” or “bad.” A change is most useful when it is compared with the prior official reading. This section shows that comparison so a small move is not mistaken for a major shift.
Previous: 3.5% · June 2026 · Source: BLS
Previous: 2.6% · June 2026 · Source: BLS
Previous: 4.2% · June 2026 · Source: BLS
Previous month: +20K · June 2026 · Source: BLS
Previous business day: 4.64% · Aug. 25, 2026 · Source: U.S. Treasury
Previous quarter: 2.1% · Q1 2026 · Source: BEA. Current baseline reflects the latest verified BEA estimate and is replaced when the secure BEA origin series refreshes.
Investozora analysis
What the data says now
The current picture is mixed: inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long run price stability objective, real GDP is still expanding, and July payroll employment changed little while unemployment remained 4.1%. Read the signals together rather than treating any single release as a complete diagnosis; revisions, measurement frequency and the difference between market rates and economic activity all matter.
Inflation
July CPI rose 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI rose 2.5%. Headline inflation eased slightly from June, but the composition matters: food prices were 3.0% higher over the year and energy prices were 14.7% higher. The core measure was lower than headline inflation, showing that volatile energy prices were adding substantial pressure to the overall rate.
Labor market
The unemployment rate was 4.1% in July and nonfarm payrolls changed little, falling by 23,000. The participation rate was 61.4%, while average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier. May and June payroll gains were revised down by a combined 103,000, which makes revisions an important part of the current jobs picture rather than a footnote.
Rates, growth & fiscal conditions
The Fed’s target range remains the anchor for short term interest rates, while Treasury yields show how market borrowing costs vary by maturity. Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate in the Q2 second estimate, down from 2.1% in Q1. Federal debt and the budget deficit should be read separately: debt is an outstanding stock; the deficit measures the gap between receipts and outlays over a period.
Rates & Treasury market
Federal Reserve policy and the Treasury curve
The effective federal funds rate is an overnight reference rate. Treasury par yields are official points on the Treasury par yield curve, not mortgage rates, corporate yields or forecasts. Treasury yields are market interest rates on U.S. government debt, while the federal funds rate is an overnight policy rate. For example, a rising 10 year yield can affect mortgage and corporate borrowing costs even when the Federal Reserve has not changed its target range that day.
2-Year vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield Historical observations
Loading the latest official Treasury curve. A dated official fallback is already available.
Latest Treasury par yield curve
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | 7Y | 10Y | 20Y | 30Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.80% | 3.85% | 3.94% | 4.02% | 4.19% | 4.29% | 4.37% | 4.51% | 4.66% | 5.17% | 5.18% |
Prices
U.S. inflation
Inflation is not one number. Headline CPI, core CPI, food, shelter, energy and PCE answer related but different questions. Reading the components helps explain why the headline rate moved. Inflation measures how quickly prices are changing. Headline CPI includes the full consumer basket, while core measures remove food and energy to make underlying price pressure easier to compare over time.
Headline vs. Core CPI Every month
The interactive line chart uses every available monthly BLS observation. Hover on desktop or tap on mobile for the exact month and value.
What is driving inflation?
| Category | 12-month change | Latest monthly change | Plain English read |
|---|---|---|---|
| All items CPI | 3.4% | +0.1% | Broad consumer price measure. |
| Core CPI | 2.5% | +0.2% | Excludes food and energy to reduce short term volatility. |
| Food | 3.0% | +0.1% | Includes food at home and food away from home. |
| Shelter | 3.2% | +0.1% | A large CPI weight; often moves more slowly than market rents. |
| Energy | 14.7% | −1.5% | Highly volatile; a major reason headline CPI can diverge from core CPI. |
| Gasoline | 24.6% | −2.9% | A visible household cost that can change quickly month to month. |
| Electricity | 4.2% | +0.1% | Part of energy services. |
| Transportation services | 2.9% | +0.3% | Includes services such as vehicle insurance and airline fares. |
| Medical care services | 2.7% | — | One component of services inflation. |
Employment
U.S. labor market
The unemployment rate and payroll count come from different BLS surveys. The household survey measures people’s labor force status; the establishment survey measures payroll jobs, hours and earnings at employers. The labor market is best read through several measures together. Payroll growth shows changes in jobs, unemployment shows the share of the labor force without work and participation shows how many people are in the labor force.
Unemployment Rate Every month
Live BLS series when available; official release fallback otherwise.
Payroll Change Every month
Thousands of jobs; latest verified release values and live BLS calculation when available.
Labor market detail
| Measure | Latest verified reading | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployed people | 6.916 million | People without a job who meet BLS unemployment criteria. |
| Employment population ratio | 58.9% | Share of the civilian noninstitutional population that is employed. |
| Labor force participation | 61.4% | Share of the population working or actively seeking work. |
| Part time for economic reasons | 4.804 million | People working part time who would prefer full time work for economic reasons. |
| Long term unemployed | 1.771 million | People unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. |
| Average hourly earnings | $37.62 | Average hourly pay for all private nonfarm employees. |
| Average hourly earnings, YoY | 3.2% | Annual wage growth measure from the establishment survey. |
| Average weekly hours | 34.3 | Average weekly hours for all private nonfarm employees. |
| 3-month average payroll change | +20K | Helps smooth a single noisy monthly payroll estimate. |
Growth & household demand
GDP, PCE and the consumer
GDP measures economy wide output. PCE measures household consumption, while the PCE price indexes measure prices for consumer goods and services. These series are related, but they are not substitutes for one another. Real GDP measures inflation adjusted economic output. PCE measures household spending and the PCE price indexes are important inflation measures used by the Federal Reserve.
Real GDP growth history Secure FRED
Loading the newest BEA origin real GDP growth series through the secure FRED gateway.
Federal finances
Debt, receipts, outlays and the deficit
Federal debt is measured at a point in time. Receipts, outlays and the deficit are flows measured over a month or fiscal year. Keeping those concepts separate prevents one of the most common errors in public debt reporting. Federal debt is the accumulated amount the government owes, while the deficit is the gap between spending and receipts over a period. They answer different questions and should not be treated as the same measure.
Total Public Debt Outstanding Month end history
Recent official Treasury observations load directly from Debt to the Penny when available.
FY2026 budget position through July
New York Fed money markets
Overnight funding rates and market plumbing
These rates describe different segments of overnight U.S. dollar funding markets. They help readers see whether the Federal Reserve’s policy setting is transmitting normally through unsecured and secured short term markets. Overnight funding rates show the price of very short term secured and unsecured borrowing. They help readers see whether Federal Reserve policy is passing through to the money markets that support the financial system.
Latest Overnight Reference Rates
Fallback: New York Fed reference rate publication dated Aug. 7, 2026. Live values replace these when the official feed loads.
EFFR vs. SOFR
EFFR summarizes overnight federal funds transactions. SOFR is a broad secured overnight financing rate backed by Treasury collateral. Similar levels can indicate orderly transmission, but they measure different markets.
TGCR and BGCR
The Tri Party General Collateral Rate and Broad General Collateral Rate describe Treasury repo activity. They add detail to the secured funding picture rather than replacing SOFR.
TIPS & real rates
Real Treasury yields and inflation compensation
Real Treasury yields come from Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Subtracting a real yield from a comparable nominal Treasury yield gives a market inflation- compensation measure: useful, but not identical to a pure inflation forecast. A real Treasury yield adjusts the nominal yield for inflation compensation. The difference between nominal and real yields is often used as a market based measure of inflation compensation, but it is not a guaranteed inflation forecast.
10-Year Nominal vs. Real Treasury Yield Historical observations
Verified Treasury observations through Aug. 26, 2026. Live Treasury nominal and real yield feeds replace this series when readable.
Inflation compensation by maturity
| Maturity | Nominal Treasury | Real Treasury | Nominal − Real | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year | 4.37% | 2.06% | 2.31% | Approximate market inflation compensation over the maturity. |
| 10-Year | 4.66% | 2.34% | 2.32% | Widely watched long run inflation compensation measure. |
| 30-Year | 5.18% | 2.92% | 2.26% | Long horizon nominal minus real spread. |
Household purchasing power
Wage growth vs. consumer inflation
Comparing nominal wage growth with CPI gives a simple view of whether pay is rising faster or slower than consumer prices. It is not the same as the BLS official real earnings series, so Investozora labels the difference as a calculation. Comparing wage growth with inflation gives a simple view of purchasing power. When wages rise faster than consumer prices, pay is gaining ground in real terms; when prices rise faster, purchasing power is under pressure.
Wage Growth Compared With CPI Inflation Every month
The live version uses BLS average hourly earnings and CPI series when BLS retrieval is available.
If the gap is positive
Nominal average hourly earnings are growing faster than CPI in percentage point terms. That can support purchasing power, although household experiences vary by spending mix, hours worked and income source.
If the gap is negative
CPI is rising faster than nominal average hourly earnings in this simple comparison. Do not call this an official “real wage” rate; it is an Investozora comparison of two published growth rates.
Inflation adjusted pay
Real earnings and household purchasing power
Nominal wages tell you how many dollars workers receive. Real earnings adjust those dollars for consumer price changes, making it easier to see whether purchasing power from an hour or week of work is rising or falling. Real earnings convert pay into inflation adjusted dollars. This makes it easier to see whether workers can buy more with their earnings than they could in an earlier period.
Real Average Hourly Earnings Every month
July 2026 official BLS fallback is visible; the live chart uses the official BLS real average hourly earnings series every month when BLS retrieval succeeds.
- Why real earnings can fall while pay risesIf nominal hourly pay rises more slowly than consumer prices, inflation adjusted hourly earnings can decline even though the paycheck contains more dollars.
- Hourly vs. weekly earningsWeekly purchasing power also depends on hours worked. Real weekly earnings can rise even when real hourly earnings fall if the average workweek becomes longer.
- July 2026 readingBLS reported real average hourly earnings down 0.1% from June and down 0.2% from a year earlier. Real weekly earnings were unchanged over the month and up 0.1% over the year.
- What this does not measureIt is an average across private nonfarm payroll employees. It does not describe every household’s income, taxes, benefits, wealth or personal spending basket.
Beyond the headline unemployment rate
U-3, U-6 and broader labor underutilization
The official unemployment rate is U-3. BLS also publishes broader measures that include discouraged workers, other marginally attached people and people working part time for economic reasons. U-6 is the broadest of the six national measures. U 3 is the official unemployment rate. U 6 is broader because it also includes some people marginally attached to the labor force and people working part time for economic reasons.
Official Unemployment Rate vs. U-6 Every month
Seasonally adjusted BLS measures. The live chart uses U-3 series LNS14000000 and U-6 series LNS13327709.
| Measure | July 2026 | What gets added |
|---|---|---|
| U-3 | 4.1% | Total unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labor force. |
| U-4 | 4.4% | U-3 plus discouraged workers. |
| U-5 | 5.1% | U-4 plus all other marginally attached workers. |
| U-6 | 7.9% | U-5 plus people working part time for economic reasons. |
Cost of carrying the debt
Federal borrowing cost and interest expense
Market yields tell you what Treasury securities trade around today. The average interest rate on debt outstanding tells you what the existing stock of federal securities costs on average. Interest expense shows the dollars accrued over time. The average interest rate on outstanding federal debt changes more slowly than market yields because old securities remain in the debt stock until they mature. Interest expense shows the cash cost recorded by Treasury over time.
Average Interest Rate on Interest Bearing Federal Debt Every month
The interactive line chart uses every monthly Treasury Fiscal Data Average Interest Rates observation available in the selected history.
Monthly Interest Expense Every month
The live graph uses Treasury’s Interest Expense on the Public Debt Outstanding dataset.
July 2026 average rates by security type
| Security category | Average interest rate | Why it differs |
|---|---|---|
| Treasury Bills | 3.758% | Short maturities reprice relatively quickly as policy and market rates change. |
| Treasury Notes | 3.309% | Large stock of securities issued across multiple years and coupon environments. |
| Treasury Bonds | 3.442% | Long dated debt retains older coupons for much longer. |
| TIPS | 1.127% | Displayed average rate does not by itself capture inflation adjustments to principal. |
| Floating Rate Notes | 3.948% | Coupon payments reset with the security’s floating rate mechanism. |
| Total Marketable | 3.443% | Average across marketable Treasury debt categories subject to Treasury methodology. |
| Total Interest Bearing Debt | 3.447% | Broader blended average covering interest bearing federal debt in the dataset. |
- Why current yields and average debt cost differA 10-year yield near today’s market level applies to new or currently traded securities. The debt stock contains securities issued in many earlier rate environments.
- Why the average rate can keep rising after Fed cutsLow coupon securities can mature and be refinanced at higher rates even when current policy rates are lower than their recent peak.
- Interest expense vs. net interest in the federal budgetTreasury’s debt interest dataset includes interest credited to government accounts as well as externally held securities. Budget net interest concepts are not identical.
- Monthly volatilityInterest expense can jump in coupon payment months and because of inflation compensation, discounts, premiums and the mix of securities outstanding.
Investozora calculations
Derived indicators that connect the data
These readings are not separate government statistics. Investozora calculates them from the official inputs shown elsewhere on this page and publishes the formula beside each value so the result can be reproduced. Derived indicators combine official inputs to answer a comparison question that no single source series answers by itself. Each formula is shown so the calculation can be checked independently.
2s10s Treasury Spread
+47 bpsCompares the 10-year Treasury yield with the 2-year yield. Negative means this portion of the curve is inverted.
(10Y − 2Y) × 100Inputs: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve.
10-Year Treasury − EFFR
+103 bpsShows the gap between a long Treasury par yield and the effective overnight federal funds rate.
(10Y − EFFR) × 100Inputs: U.S. Treasury 10-year yield + New York Fed EFFR.
10-Year Inflation Compensation
2.32%Nominal 10-year Treasury yield minus the 10-year real Treasury yield. It is market inflation compensation, not a pure forecast.
10Y nominal − 10Y realInputs: Treasury nominal curve + Treasury real curve.
Wage Growth − CPI
−0.2 ppA simple comparison of annual average hourly earnings growth with annual CPI inflation.
AHE YoY − CPI YoYInputs: BLS average hourly earnings CES0500000003 + BLS CPI U CUUR0000SA0.
Debt Held by Public Share
Share of total public debt outstanding classified by Treasury as debt held by the public.
Debt held by public ÷ total public debt × 100
Headline − Core CPI Gap
+0.9 ppShows how far headline CPI is above or below CPI excluding food and energy in year over year terms.
Headline CPI YoY − Core CPI YoYInputs: BLS headline CPI + BLS CPI excluding food and energy.
What updates next
Major U.S. economic release calendar
Scheduled release times are Eastern Time. This calendar is a reader service, not a market consensus calendar: “actual” data should come from the agency that publishes the release. Release dates matter because economic statistics arrive on different schedules. This calendar helps readers see which official publication is likely to change the dashboard next.
Ces Preliminary Benchmark Revision: March 2026
Official BLS release calendar · national preliminary benchmark.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover: July 2026
Employment Situation: August 2026
Payrolls, unemployment, earnings and participation · Official BLS schedule.
Producer Price Index: August 2026
Consumer Price Index: August 2026
Headline and core CPI · Official BLS schedule.
Fomc Policy Decision
Two day meeting Sept. 15–16; press conference scheduled · Official Federal Reserve Fomc calendar.
GDP, Third Estimate: Q2 2026
Personal Income and Outlays: August 2026
PCE, core PCE, income, spending and saving · Official BEA release schedule.
Data integrity
Freshness, release dates and revisions
“Latest” does not mean “real time.” A trustworthy economic page distinguishes the period being measured, the date an agency published it, the time Investozora retrieved it and whether the statistic can later be revised. Observation date, release date and retrieval time are different. This section keeps those concepts separate and explains how revisions are handled when an agency changes an earlier estimate.
| Indicator | Current reference period | Latest scheduled publication / observation | Next scheduled major release | Revision behavior |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | July 2026 | Aug. 12, 2026 | Sep. 11, 2026 · August CPI | Seasonal factors can be revised; the published monthly release is the source for the current headline. |
| Employment Situation | July 2026 | Aug. 7, 2026 | Sep. 4, 2026 · August jobs report | Payroll estimates are routinely revised as more employer reports arrive. |
| Real GDP | Q2 2026 second estimate | Aug. 26, 2026 | Sep. 30, 2026 · third estimate | Advance, second and third estimates can change as source data become more complete. |
| PCE / Core PCE | July 2026 | Aug. 26, 2026 | Sep. 30, 2026 · August Personal Income and Outlays | BEA series can be revised, including during annual updates. |
| Treasury par yields | Latest available business day | Business day observation | Next Treasury business day update | Daily curve observations are official Treasury estimates from its yield curve methodology. |
| EFFR / SOFR | Latest available business day | New York Fed reference rate publication | Next business day publication | New York Fed exposes a revision indicator in its reference rate feed. |
| Debt to the Penny | Latest available business day | Previous business day debt position | Next business day dataset update | Treasury reports the published debt position for each record date. |
| Monthly Treasury Statement | FY2026 through July | Monthly fiscal statement | Next monthly Mts | Monthly and fiscal year to date totals should be read from the relevant statement; do not sum FYTD rows across months. |
Observation date
The date or period the number describes: for example, July 2026 CPI or a Treasury yield for a particular business day.
Release date
The date the agency publishes the statistic. A July statistic can be released in August, so the release date and reference period are not interchangeable.
Retrieval time
The time Investozora successfully fetched a browser readable official feed. Retrieval time does not change the underlying observation date.
Revision
A later agency update to a previously published estimate. Revisions should be treated as part of the economic record, not silently ignored.
Reader guide
What each indicator means in plain English
A dashboard becomes useful when a non specialist can understand it without losing the precision an analyst expects. These definitions are written for readers who want the meaning before the jargon. Each explanation focuses on what the indicator measures, why it matters and how to avoid a common misreading.
CPI
A measure of how prices paid by urban consumers change over time. The year over year rate compares the index with the same month one year earlier.
Core CPI
CPI excluding food and energy. It helps reveal underlying price trends, but households still pay for food and energy, so it should not replace headline CPI.
Core PCE
A BEA price measure excluding food and energy. It uses different weights and scope from CPI and is closely watched in Federal Reserve policy discussions.
Unemployment rate
The share of the labor force that is jobless, available for work and actively seeking work under BLS definitions. People outside the labor force are not counted as unemployed.
Nonfarm payrolls
An employer survey estimate of payroll jobs outside farming and several excluded categories. Monthly changes are revised as BLS receives more complete information.
Labor force participation
The share of the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older that is employed or actively looking for work.
Fed target range
The Federal Open Market Committee’s target range for the federal funds rate. It is a policy target, not the interest rate every household or business pays.
Effective federal funds rate
A transaction based overnight rate published by the New York Fed. It normally trades within the Federal Reserve’s target range.
Treasury yield
The return implied by a Treasury security or official par yield curve point for a specific maturity. Yields and bond prices move in opposite directions.
2s10s spread
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year yield. A negative number means that part of the yield curve is inverted; a positive number means the 10-year yield is higher.
Real GDP
The inflation adjusted value of goods and services produced in the economy. Quarterly headline growth is commonly reported at an annualized rate.
Federal debt
The amount of federal debt outstanding at a point in time. Treasury separates debt held by the public from intragovernmental holdings.
Federal deficit
The amount by which federal outlays exceed receipts during a period. A surplus is the opposite: receipts exceed outlays.
Revisions
Many economic statistics are estimates based on incomplete information when first released. Agencies revise them as better data arrive. The revision is part of the data story.
Seasonally adjusted
A statistical adjustment intended to remove recurring seasonal patterns so month to month changes are easier to compare.
Reader questions
U.S. Economy Dashboard FAQ
Eight evidence based answers explain how to interpret live U.S. macro data, revisions and derived measures while preserving the distinction between official statistics and Investozora analysis. These answers cover the questions that come up most often when people compare inflation, growth, jobs, interest rates, revisions and recession signals.
Is the U.S. currently in a recession?
No single dashboard metric is an official recession declaration. The Nber Business Cycle Dating Committee dates U.S. peaks and troughs using a range of economy wide activity measures. Investozora’s macro regime signal is a transparent analytical classification, not an Nber determination.
How quickly does this dashboard update?
Registered BLS and FRED requests run through a server side gateway, while Treasury and New York Fed business day feeds refresh from official endpoints. The BLS Public Data API, FRED API, Treasury rates and New York Fed Markets API remain the authoritative upstream records; publication timing and cache duration can affect the exact second a new value appears here.
Observation date vs. release date: what is the difference?
The observation date is the period measured; the release date is when the agency publishes it. For example, the BLS CPI release identifies the reference month separately from its publication date. Investozora keeps observation period, release date and retrieval status separate.
Are Investozora derived indicators official statistics?
No. Curve spreads, inflation compensation and wage growth minus CPI are calculations from identified source series. The inputs link back to the U.S. Treasury, Treasury real yield curve or BLS as appropriate, and the displayed formula makes the calculation reproducible.
Why can official economic numbers be revised?
Many statistics are first published before every source record is complete. The BEA GDP release distinguishes estimate vintages, while BLS employment releases can revise prior payroll months. Revisions are part of the official data process, so the dashboard replaces older estimates with the newest validated release rather than treating the first print as permanent.
Why are CPI and PCE inflation different?
BLS CPI and the BEA PCE price index differ in scope, weights and methodology. Core versions exclude food and energy, but they are still distinct series. Viewing both helps readers understand whether price pressure is broad, concentrated or changing across measures.
What do “seasonally adjusted” and “SAAR” mean?
Seasonal adjustment removes recurring calendar patterns to make adjacent periods more comparable. SAAR means seasonally adjusted annual rate: the BEA GDP quarterly growth rate is annualized, so it is not the same concept as a year over year percentage change.
How should debt, the deficit and Treasury yields be read together?
Debt to the Penny is a stock measured at a point in time; the Monthly Treasury Statement reports receipts and outlays over a period; Treasury par yields are market borrowing rates by maturity. They interact through financing conditions but are not interchangeable measures.
Transparency
Sources, calculations and update rules
Every major value should be traceable to an originating government or Federal Reserve publication. This section identifies the source series, natural frequency, transformation rule, revision treatment and the boundary between an official statistic, an Investozora calculation and editorial interpretation. This section lists the originating sources, series identifiers, formulas and update rules used on the page. It is designed so a journalist, analyst or reader can trace a displayed number back to the official record.
| Indicator | Primary source | Series / dataset | Frequency | Investozora method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal funds target range | New York Fed | Reference rates / EFFR feed | Policy / business day | Display official target lower and upper bounds. |
| Effective federal funds rate | New York Fed | EFFR | Business day | Display official published EFFR. |
| Treasury yield curve | U.S. Treasury | Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve | Business day | Display official par yield observations by maturity. |
| 2s10s | U.S. Treasury + Investozora | Derived | Business day | (10Y − 2Y) × 100 basis points. |
| CPI | BLS | CUUR0000SA0 | Monthly | 12-month percentage change from unadjusted CPI index. |
| Core CPI | BLS | CUUR0000SA0L1E | Monthly | 12-month percentage change from index excluding food and energy. |
| Monthly CPI | BLS | CUSR0000SA0 | Monthly | Month to month percent change from seasonally adjusted index. |
| Unemployment | BLS | LNS14000000 | Monthly | Official seasonally adjusted rate. |
| Payroll change | BLS | CES0000000001 | Monthly | Latest payroll employment level minus prior month, in thousands. |
| Wage growth | BLS | CES0500000003 | Monthly | 12-month percentage change in average hourly earnings. |
| Participation | BLS | LNS11300000 | Monthly | Official rate. |
| Core PCE | BEA | PCE price index excluding food and energy | Monthly | BEA origin series is retrieved through FRED by the secure server side gateway; the FRED API credential is never exposed in page source. |
| Real GDP | BEA | Real GDP | Quarterly | BEA origin real GDP growth is retrieved through FRED by the secure server side gateway; estimate revisions replace the current observation when published. |
| SOFR / OBFR / TGCR / BGCR | New York Fed | Reference Rates | Business day | Display official percent rate; SOFR volume in billions converted to trillions for compact display. |
| Real Treasury yields | U.S. Treasury | Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve | Business day | Display official TIPS based real constant maturity par yields. |
| Inflation compensation | U.S. Treasury + Investozora | Derived | Business day | Comparable nominal Treasury yield minus real Treasury yield. Not described as pure expected inflation. |
| Wage growth − CPI | BLS + Investozora | CES0500000003 + CUUR0000SA0 | Monthly | Nominal average hourly earnings YoY growth minus CPI YoY growth in percentage points. |
| Federal debt | Treasury Fiscal Data | Debt to the Penny | Business day | Official debt held by public + intragovernmental holdings. |
| Real average hourly earnings | BLS | CES0500000013 | Monthly | Official BLS real average hourly earnings for all private employees, seasonally adjusted, in constant 1982–84 dollars. |
| U-6 labor underutilization | BLS | LNS13327709 | Monthly | Official seasonally adjusted broad labor underutilization rate. |
| Average interest rate on Treasury debt | Treasury Fiscal Data | avg_interest_rates | Monthly | Display Treasury’s published average rate for Total Interest bearing Debt and related security categories. |
| Interest expense on debt outstanding | Treasury Fiscal Data | interest_expense | Monthly | Display current month and FYTD Treasury interest expense amounts; do not equate gross debt interest with budget net interest. |
| Data freshness labels | Investozora | Page metadata | Every update | Keep observation period, release date and retrieval status conceptually separate. |
| Revision context | Originating agency + Investozora | Agency release revisions | As published | Display newest official estimate; explain material revisions in analysis or related reporting. |
| Receipts / outlays / deficit | U.S. Treasury | Monthly Treasury Statement | Monthly | FYTD totals. Never sum FYTD rows across months. |
Primary source registry
| Publisher | Data used here | Access method | Freshness rule | Investozora treatment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED | BEA origin GDP, PCE inflation, income, saving and debt to GDP distribution | FRED API through secure Investozora Worker gateway | Source dependent | FRED credential remains server side; originating source attribution is retained and revisions replace current observations. |
| Bureau of Labor Statistics | CPI, Core CPI, unemployment, payrolls, wages, participation, U-6, real earnings | BLS Public Data API / official releases | Monthly | Official values preserved; derived rates and differences labeled as Investozora calculations. |
| Bureau of Economic Analysis | GDP, PCE, Core PCE, personal income, spending, saving | Official BEA releases in frontend only build | Monthly / quarterly | Editorially updated because a private BEA UserID is not exposed in public page source. |
| Federal Reserve Bank of New York | EFFR, SOFR, OBFR, TGCR, BGCR, target bounds, SOFR volume and averages | Public Markets Data JSON | Business day | Displayed directly after validation; effective date retained. |
| U.S. Department of the Treasury | Nominal and real par yield curves | Official XML feeds | Business day | Daily observations used for latest values; historical charts retain each available business day observation so daily path changes remain inspectable. |
| Treasury Fiscal Data | Debt, debt composition, average borrowing cost, interest expense | Fiscal Data JSON API | Business day / monthly | Raw dollar amounts normalized only for display units such as billions and trillions. |
| U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement | Receipts, outlays and fiscal year to date budget balance | Official monthly statement | Monthly | FYTD values are never summed across months; the relevant statement’s reported total is used. |
BLS Consumer Price Index
Headline CPI, core CPI and detailed consumer price components; monthly index and change data.
Official BLS CPI →BLS Employment Situation
Payroll employment, unemployment, earnings and labor force measures from the Ces and Cps programs.
Official Employment Situation →BEA Gross Domestic Product
Official real GDP estimates and revisions, including quarterly SAAR growth.
Official BEA GDP →BEA Personal Income and Outlays
PCE and core PCE inflation, personal income, spending, real PCE and saving.
Official BEA Pio release →New York Fed Reference Rates
EFFR, SOFR, OBFR, TGCR, BGCR, target range fields and secured market reference rate information.
Official NY Fed EFFR →U.S. Treasury Daily Rates
Nominal and real Treasury par yield curves published for business day market observations.
Official Treasury nominal curve →Official Treasury real curve →
Treasury Debt to the Penny
Total public debt outstanding, debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings.
Official Debt to the Penny →Treasury Fiscal Data
Average Treasury borrowing rates, interest expense and Monthly Treasury Statement fiscal flows.
Official Fiscal Data →FRED secure distribution layer
Server side access to selected BEA origin and Federal Reserve economic time series; FRED credentials remain private.
Official FRED API documentation →