Gold remained near a seven-week low on Tuesday after a sharp selloff in the previous session, with higher U.S. Treasury yields, a firm dollar and renewed expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy keeping pressure on bullion.
Spot gold was around $4,125 an ounce in Tuesday trading after falling as low as $4,110.55 in the previous session, its lowest level since August 5, according to Reuters-reported market data. U.S. gold futures also fell sharply, with December futures down about 3.9% in the same market move.
That puts the metal well below the $4,271.54 spot level reported on September 25. The move from that observation to roughly $4,125 represents an approximately 3.4% decline, calculated by Investozora. The comparison extends the weakness described in Investozora’s September 25 gold report, when bullion had already slipped below $4,300.
Treasury yields remain the key cross-asset pressure
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed as much as 11 basis points to 5.27% on September 28, reaching its highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield moved above 5.5%. The latest official Treasury daily par-yield curve shows the 10-year yield at 5.24% on September 28, up from 5.17% on September 25.
The yield increase matters for gold because Treasury securities provide an income-producing alternative to an asset that pays no interest. The relationship is not mechanical on any individual session, but the higher-rate backdrop raises the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Investozora’s earlier Treasury-yield coverage documented the earlier acceleration in long-term yields.
Oil has added another layer to the market’s inflation discussion. Reuters reported that crude prices rose about 3% after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal involving the Strait of Hormuz, while higher energy prices renewed concern about inflation and the path of U.S. interest rates.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said higher oil prices and increased expectations for further rate hikes were among the main pressures on gold. Investozora’s September 29 Brent report provides the latest oil-market context.
The Fed backdrop has shifted higher
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% on September 16 and said inflation remained elevated in its September 16 FOMC statement. The Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections put the median year-end federal funds rate at 4.1% for 2026, while the median projection for 2026 PCE inflation rose to 3.7%.
Those projections are not scheduled future decisions, but they show that policymakers’ September baseline remains materially tighter than the June projection. That is the policy backdrop investors are carrying into the latest gold and Treasury-market moves.
Markets now turn to U.S. data
The next test comes from incoming economic data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has scheduled the August JOLTS report for September 29 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, followed by the August Personal Income and Outlays report, including PCE inflation, on September 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The September Employment Situation is scheduled for October 2 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
For gold, the immediate market question is whether yields remain near multi-year highs as those releases arrive. A sustained easing in rates could change the pressure on bullion, while stronger inflation or labor-market readings could reinforce the current higher-rate backdrop. Those are conditional market scenarios, not confirmed outcomes.
