U.S. benchmark natural gas prices averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August 2026, 6% below the same period last year, as record production and ample inventories outweighed exceptionally hot weather and strong electricity demand.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September 25 analysis showed that Henry Hub prices stayed relatively subdued even as air-conditioning demand increased during one of the hottest periods on record. Natural gas-fired power plants often supply additional electricity when cooling demand rises, a pattern that normally adds pressure to gas consumption.
This summer was unusually hot. NOAA reported that the contiguous United States averaged 76.9°F in July, making it the warmest July and warmest month in the 132-year U.S. record. Yet supply expanded fast enough to limit the price response.
EIA estimates U.S. natural gas production during June through August was 2.7 billion cubic feet per day, or 2%, higher than during the same three months of 2025. Production growth came from several regions, with the Permian Basin playing a particularly important role.
That increase is part of a broader production expansion. EIA’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts U.S. dry natural gas production averaging 111.7 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 107.64 Bcf/d in 2025. The agency currently forecasts an annual-average Henry Hub price of $3.43 per MMBtu for 2026.
Storage also gave the market a sizable cushion. Working natural gas inventories entered the injection season at 1,906 Bcf, 4% above the previous five-year average. EIA said monthly injections then exceeded their corresponding five-year averages in every month through August except May.
The latest available weekly data show that Lower 48 working gas inventories had climbed to 3,351 Bcf as of September 18, up from 3,214 Bcf at the end of August. EIA’s September outlook now projects inventories of 3,969 Bcf on October 31, the end of the injection season. That would be 5% above the 2021–2025 average and 1% above October 2025 levels.
The September estimate supersedes EIA’s August forecast of 3,985 Bcf. The latest storage forecast therefore continues to point to comparatively high supplies heading into winter, although at a slightly lower level than projected a month earlier.
LNG demand was another part of the summer equation. Maintenance at Freeport LNG and other export facilities temporarily reduced Gulf Coast feedgas demand. EIA’s August outlook said Freeport maintenance affected about 2 Bcf/d of nominal export capacity, helping more gas remain in domestic storage. U.S. LNG exports nevertheless rose 23% year over year in the first half of 2026 as new export capacity came online.
The market remained near the summer average in September. EIA’s daily series showed the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90 per MMBtu on September 22, after readings of $2.93 on September 21 and $2.97 on September 18. Those latest Henry Hub prices suggest the supply cushion continued to restrain prices as the summer cooling season ended.
The next major test will be winter demand. High inventories provide protection against stronger heating consumption, but temperatures, production growth and LNG export demand can still change the balance. EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for October 6, when the agency will update its winter natural gas forecasts.
