U.S. private-sector hiring strengthened again in early September, with employers adding an average 20,000 jobs per week during the four weeks ending Sept. 5, according to a preliminary high-frequency estimate released Tuesday by ADP.
The Sept. 22 reading was the third consecutive weekly acceleration in ADP’s NER Pulse and the strongest reading in the series since late June. ADP released the estimate at 8:15 a.m. ET. The latest sequence was:
- September 5: 20,000 jobs per week
- August 29: 16,750
- August 22: 12,250
- August 15: 10,000
Those figures are seasonally adjusted four-week moving averages, rather than estimates of jobs created during a single individual week. ADP also describes them as preliminary because later payroll information can change earlier estimates.
Hiring pace doubles
The latest data show a clearer improvement than the headline alone. ADP’s weekly gauge increased from 10,000 for the four weeks ending Aug. 15 to 20,000 for the four weeks ending Sept. 5. That represents a 100% increase over the three-week span, according to an Investozora calculation using ADP’s published figures.
The pace increased by 2,250 between Aug. 15 and Aug. 22, by another 4,500 by Aug. 29 and by 3,250 in the latest reading. Because these are overlapping four-week averages, however, those changes should be read as evidence that ADP’s high-frequency hiring measure has strengthened not as four separate weekly payroll totals.
Earlier data revised
The latest table also contains revisions that matter for interpreting the trend. ADP initially reported 16,250 jobs per week for the four weeks ending Aug. 29 on Sept. 15. The newest table raises that figure to 16,750, an upward revision of 500 jobs per week.
The Aug. 22 estimate has also moved. ADP initially reported 12,000 on Sept. 9, while the latest table shows 12,250. Those revisions reinforce why the NER Pulse should be treated as a developing preliminary indicator rather than a fixed payroll count.
Different from payrolls
The NER Pulse is not the federal government’s monthly jobs report. ADP says the measure estimates week-over-week employment change using a four-week moving average, is seasonally adjusted and is published with a two-week lag so more payroll information can be incorporated. ADP produces the National Employment Report and NER Pulse with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
ADP’s separate monthly National Employment Report showed private employers adding 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest monthly pace since January. That report is based on anonymized payroll data covering more than 26 million private-sector employees.
The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, meanwhile, reported that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 162,000 in August and that the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. The BLS figure covers a different statistical system and includes government employment, so it should not be compared directly with the 20,000-a-week NER Pulse reading.
That distinction also matters when reading Investozora’s recent coverage of weekly U.S. jobless claims and the broader U.S. labor-market slowdown in hiring and quits. Those indicators measure different parts of labor-market activity.
What comes next
The improving ADP sequence provides a fresh signal that private hiring strengthened into early September, but it does not by itself establish the direction of the broader labor market or determine the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.
ADP’s next monthly National Employment Report, covering September, is scheduled for Sept. 30 at 8:15 a.m. ET. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will then release the official September Employment Situation on Oct. 2 at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing the next comprehensive federal reading on payroll employment and unemployment.
ADP’s next NER Pulse is scheduled for Oct. 6.
