Forecasts for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment are settling around the mid-3% range as inflation eases from its spring highs. AARP projects a 3.6% COLA, while The Senior Citizens League’s latest publicly available forecast stands at 3.8%, down from 3.9% in May. The official increase will not be known until October.
Social Security recipients are getting their first meaningful look at the inflation data that will determine their 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, but no official COLA has been announced.
AARP currently projects a 3.6% Social Security COLA for 2027, based on inflation data and projections for the months that determine the adjustment. The Senior Citizens League, meanwhile, projected a 3.8% COLA on July 14, below its 3.9% forecast published in May. Both figures remain private forecasts rather than Social Security Administration estimates.
The distinction is important. The Social Security Administration’s official COLA page still lists 2.8% as the latest COLA, the adjustment that applies to 2026 benefits. SSA has not announced a 2027 percentage.
2027 Social Security COLA estimates are below their spring peak
The direction of the forecasts has changed as inflation has cooled from the sharper increases seen earlier this year. The Senior Citizens League raised its 2027 projection to 3.9% in May, then lowered it to 3.8% in June and held it at that level in July. AARP’s July forecast came in slightly lower at 3.6%. The latest publicly verifiable forecasts therefore look like this:
| Source | 2027 COLA Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|
| AARP | 3.6% | Forecast |
| The Senior Citizens League | 3.8% | Forecast |
| Social Security Administration | Not announced | Official figure pending |
The range could change again because two of the three months that ultimately determine the COLA still have to be incorporated into the final calculation. Social Security recipients can read Investozora’s detailed explanation of how the 2027 Social Security COLA formula works for a closer look at the calculation.
Cooling inflation is changing the outlook
The inflation measure that matters for Social Security is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI-W was up 3.5% over the 12 months ending in June 2026, with the index falling 0.5% during June before seasonal adjustment. The broader CPI-U also declined 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the month, with lower energy prices playing a major role.
That followed significantly stronger inflation earlier in the spring and helps explain why COLA forecasts stopped climbing after reaching 3.9%.
But one month of cooler inflation does not determine the Social Security adjustment. The COLA calculation follows a specific statutory formula, and the year-over-year inflation rate quoted in a monthly CPI report is not itself the COLA.
Only July, August and September determine the final COLA
The Social Security Administration explains that COLAs are calculated by comparing the average CPI-W during the third quarter July, August and September with the third-quarter average from the last year in which a COLA became effective. For the upcoming calculation, the relevant 2025 third-quarter CPI-W readings were:
| Month | 2025 CPI-W |
|---|---|
| July | 316.349 |
| August | 317.306 |
| September | 318.139 |
| Third-quarter average | 317.265 |
Those figures come directly from SSA’s official COLA calculation. The final 2027 COLA will depend on how the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2026 compares with that 317.265 base.
This is why inflation reports from January through June can influence forecasts but cannot directly determine the official 2027 adjustment. July is the first month that actually enters the calculation.
What a 3.6% COLA would mean for the average retired worker
SSA’s latest available Monthly Statistical Snapshot shows that the average retired-worker benefit was $2,084.40 per month in June 2026. Using that amount only as an illustration, a 3.6% COLA would produce: $2,084.40 × 3.6% = $75.04
That would bring the illustrated monthly benefit to about: $2,159.44. A 3.8% adjustment would produce an increase of approximately $79.21, bringing the same illustrative benefit to about $2,163.61.
| Scenario | Monthly Increase | Illustrated Monthly Benefit |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6% COLA | $75.04 | $2,159.44 |
| 3.8% COLA | $79.21 | $2,163.61 |
Investozora calculation: These figures apply the forecast percentages to SSA’s June 2026 average retired-worker benefit of $2,084.40. They are illustrations, not SSA projections of an individual’s future payment. Actual Social Security benefits vary widely depending on a person’s earnings history, claiming age, benefit type and other factors.
A smaller COLA does not necessarily mean retirees are worse off
A declining COLA forecast can initially look like bad news because it implies a smaller increase in monthly benefits. But COLAs are designed to respond to inflation. SSA says the purpose of the adjustment is to help keep Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits from losing purchasing power as prices rise.
If inflation cools, the resulting COLA can become smaller because prices are increasing more slowly. Conversely, very large COLAs generally occur after periods of unusually high inflation. That relationship can make the percentage increase misleading when viewed by itself.
For example, SSA’s historical data show COLAs of 5.9% for 2022 and 8.7% for 2023, reflecting the unusually high inflation surrounding those adjustments. The increases subsequently fell to 3.2% for 2024, 2.5% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026. Investozora’s Social Security COLA history provides additional context on how recent adjustments compare with earlier years.
The COLA is meant to preserve buying power, not provide a bonus
A COLA is sometimes described casually as a Social Security “raise,” but that can give the wrong impression. The adjustment is an inflation mechanism. Its purpose is to compensate beneficiaries for changes in consumer prices rather than independently increase their standard of living.
That distinction matters because a beneficiary who receives a larger check after a year of high inflation may still find that groceries, housing, utilities, insurance or health care consume much of the increase. Investozora has examined this issue separately in its analysis of Social Security buying power and inflation.
Medicare could affect the net increase some retirees receive
The headline COLA percentage also does not necessarily equal the increase a beneficiary will see in their deposited payment. For people whose Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security, changes in Medicare premiums can affect the net amount received after the COLA takes effect.
The final 2027 Medicare Part B premium and the official 2027 Social Security COLA should therefore be treated as separate numbers until both are officially established. Beneficiaries can read Investozora’s guide to how Medicare premiums can affect the 2027 Social Security COLA for a deeper explanation.
Two inflation reports remain before the final number is known
The next major milestones are already on the Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar. BLS has scheduled the August 2026 CPI report for September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The September 2026 CPI report is scheduled for October 14, 2026, also at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
| Inflation Month | BLS Release Date | Role in 2027 COLA |
|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | August 12, 2026 | First COLA-setting month |
| August 2026 | September 11, 2026 | Second COLA-setting month |
| September 2026 | October 14, 2026 | Final COLA-setting month |
The September CPI release will supply the final CPI-W figure needed to calculate the official adjustment. Until then, every 2027 percentage remains a forecast.
What could move the 2027 COLA higher or lower?
The final number will depend on how consumer prices behave during the remainder of the third quarter. If CPI-W inflation weakens further during August and September, the final COLA could land below today’s higher forecasts. If inflation accelerates, the adjustment could move in the opposite direction.
Neither outcome is guaranteed. That uncertainty is precisely why forecasts should not be confused with the official Social Security calculation. The 2027 COLA will ultimately be determined by actual third-quarter CPI-W data rather than by any advocacy group’s, economist’s or publication’s prediction.
What Social Security recipients should know now
For beneficiaries planning their 2027 budgets, the most defensible conclusion is not that Social Security has approved a 3.6% or 3.8% increase. It has not.
Instead, current forecasts suggest an adjustment somewhere in the mid-3% range, with AARP currently projecting 3.6% and The Senior Citizens League’s latest publicly available forecast at 3.8%. Those projections remain above the official 2.8% COLA for 2026, but they can still change.
The next important date is September 11, when BLS publishes August inflation data. The decisive date is October 14, when September CPI data are scheduled for release and all three CPI-W readings needed for the 2027 COLA calculation will be available.
Until then, retirees should treat every 2027 COLA number as an estimate rather than a confirmed increase.
