Spot gold slipped on Tuesday, October 6, as higher U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar pressured bullion, although the retreat remained limited by reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase this month, according to the latest Reuters market update.
Spot gold stood at $4,128.83 an ounce at 0400 GMT, down 0.3%, while U.S. gold futures were little changed at $4,155.90 . The move was modest in dollar terms but clear against the previous comparable market observation. Reuters had reported spot gold at $4,139.89 an ounce at 1804 GMT on October 5 .
That puts the latest observation $11.06 lower, or about 0.27%, calculated by Investozora as ($4,128.83 − $4,139.89) ÷ $4,139.89 × 100. These are intraday observations rather than official daily closing prices, so the comparison should not be treated as a session close-to-close return.
Treasury yields remain the main rate-market pressure
The Treasury backdrop remained unusually firm. The U.S. Treasury’s latest official daily par-yield curve, covering the October 5 U.S. session, put the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.31% and the 30-year yield at 5.66%, compared with 5.28% and 5.63%, respectively, on October 2 U.S. Treasury daily par-yield data.
The increases of 3 basis points in each maturity are an Investozora calculation from the Treasury figures. Treasury says its constant-maturity rates are derived from indicative bid-side quotations obtained at or near 3:30 p.m. ET, which makes them different from an overnight market high or real-time quote. Reuters also reported that the 10- and 30-year yields reached their highest levels in about 24 years during Monday’s trading, while the benchmark 10-year closed around 5.31% .
That matters for gold because bullion does not pay interest, making higher yields a less favorable relative-return alternative, although the relationship is not mechanical on every trading session. Investozora’s earlier analysis of the Treasury-yield breakout explains why long-term yields can rise even when the Federal Reserve’s policy rate is not moving.
Weak jobs data is limiting the gold decline
The rate picture is complicated by the much weaker September labor report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 29,000 payroll gains and a 4.2% unemployment rate for September, while revisions reduced the previous two months’ payroll gains.
Investozora’s recent analysis found that the report weakened the case for an October Fed hike because the labor-market deterioration arrived after the Fed’s September meeting and changed the information available for the next decision.
That repricing has provided some support for gold even as long-term yields remain high. Reuters reported Monday that markets were assigning roughly a 24% probability to an October Fed hike, down from 64% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch, while December remained heavily priced for another increase .
Reuters’ Tuesday gold report put the December hike probability at 87% . These are market expectations, not Federal Reserve decisions. The CME FedWatch Tool tracks probabilities implied by federal-funds futures.
Inflation pressure is keeping the yield story alive
The September ISM Services report adds a second signal to the rate-market picture. The headline Services PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.4, but the Prices Index rose to 74.0 from 72.6, its highest reading since July 2022. That combination leaves the market balancing weaker labor demand against persistent price pressure rather than receiving a simple signal for lower rates.
Gold therefore enters Tuesday with two competing forces: fading expectations for an immediate October Fed hike are limiting the downside, while elevated long-term yields and a firm dollar continue to weigh on the metal .
Investozora previously documented a similar tension when gold stabilized near $4,184 before the September jobs report, making the current move a continuation of the same cross-asset question rather than a completely new pattern.
What markets are watching next
The next scheduled Federal Reserve event is the release of the September FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 7, followed by the next policy meeting on October 27-28.
The minutes could provide another read on how policymakers viewed inflation, labor conditions and the September rate increase, while the market’s more immediate test for gold remains whether long-term Treasury yields continue rising despite the sharp reduction in October rate-hike expectations.
