April 16, 2026 • 3:35 AM ET
The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on April 28-29, 2026 is 12 days away. The current federal funds target rate is 3.5 to 3.75 percent, held unchanged at both the January 27-28 and March 17-18, 2026 meetings. The policy statement will be released on April 29 at 2:00 PM ET. FOMC calendar
The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets in 12 days, April 28-29, 2026, for its next scheduled rate decision. The current federal funds target rate of 3.5 to 3.75 percent has been held unchanged through two consecutive meetings this year, at both the January 27-28 and March 17-18 sessions.
The April 29 policy statement, released at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, will determine whether that hold continues or whether the FOMC moves the rate for the first time in 2026. This FOMC meeting arrives under conditions the Fed has described as “elevated uncertainty” in its own official communications. Inflation remains above the 2 percent target.
Job gains have stayed low. A conflict in the Middle East has added energy price pressures that the March minutes explicitly identified as a new source of economic uncertainty. Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 PM ET on April 29 to explain the decision.
Where the Rate Stands and What the Fed Said in March
The Federal Reserve’s current federal funds target range is 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. This range was set during the second half of 2025 through three cuts of 25 basis points each, a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points from the prior level. Since those cuts, the FOMC has held the rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent at every subsequent meeting, including both January and March 2026.
The March 17-18, 2026 meeting minutes, released April 8, described the committee’s reasoning in precise terms. Participants noted that inflation remained above the 2 percent objective. They observed that job gains had remained low and that the unemployment rate had shown little change.
Most participants supported maintaining the current target range. The minutes noted that “two 25 basis point rate cuts this year” remained the median market expectation, though survey respondents had pushed out the timing of those cuts compared with prior expectations.
The March minutes also flagged the Middle East conflict as a specific new risk. Energy prices had risen sharply during the inter-meeting period. The Fed noted that several central banks previously expected to ease, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, were reconsidering their timelines due to global inflationary pressure from elevated energy costs.
The Federal Reserve operates the FedACH network through which all Social Security payments, IRS refunds, and other federal payments are disbursed. When the Fed adjusts rates, the effect on consumer deposit accounts and mortgage rates does not arrive instantly, the transmission from the policy rate to commercial bank deposit rates typically takes 30 to 60 days as banks update their rate sheets.
Changes to the federal funds rate also affect the interest rate charged on unpaid tax balances, which the IRS calculates as the federal short-term rate plus 3 percentage points.
Three Possible Outcomes on April 29
The April 29 meeting has three possible outcomes, each with distinct implications for consumers and federal payment systems.
Rate hold at 3.5 to 3.75 percent
It is the most probable outcome based on the March minutes and the elevated uncertainty described by the committee. A hold means savings account rates at competitive online banks remain in the range of 4 to 4.5 percent APY.
Mortgage rates stay elevated in the upper 6 percent range. The interest rate the IRS charges on underpayments for Q3 2026, which the Fed’s rate influences would remain stable. For federal payment recipients, a hold means nothing changes immediately.
Rate cut of 25 basis points to 3.25 to 3.5 percent
Represent the first FOMC move in 2026. The March minutes showed two dissents at the January meeting from members who preferred to cut immediately, Governor Miran and Governor Waller both voted for a 25 basis point reduction at the January session.
A cut would signal that the FOMC has gained confidence that inflation is declining toward target and that the labor market risks have increased. Consumer impact: savings rates would begin declining within 30 to 60 days. Mortgage rates could ease modestly. The effect on federal payment disbursement systems would be minimal, FedACH operations are not rate-sensitive on a day-to-day basis.
Rate hike
It is not a current expectation based on available FOMC communications. While inflation remains above target, the committee’s language has consistently pointed toward eventual cuts rather than hikes. A rate hike would require a significant and unexpected surge in inflation combined with a strong labor market — neither condition is currently described in official FOMC communications.
What Happens Next: The 12-Day Pre-Meeting Window
Between today and the April 28 meeting start, the FOMC will absorb two key economic data releases that will influence committee members’ thinking. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release March consumer spending data, and the Federal Reserve will receive staff forecasts ahead of the meeting. Market participants will closely monitor any public speeches by Fed officials for signals about their intentions.
On April 28, the meeting convenes in Washington. On April 29, the committee votes. The policy statement is released at 2:00 PM Eastern, the Fed’s official release time for all FOMC decisions. Chair Powell’s press conference begins at 2:30 PM Eastern the same day. The full minutes of the April 28-29 meeting will be released three weeks later, on May 20, 2026, per the FOMC calendar.
After the April 29 decision, the next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 16-17, 2026. The June meeting includes new Summary of Economic Projections, the “dot plot” which provides the committee’s individual rate forecasts through 2028.
What This Means
The April 28-29 FOMC meeting is the next scheduled decision point in the Federal Reserve’s rate path for 2026. Two consecutive holds have kept borrowing costs stable since the rate cuts of late 2025. The March minutes confirm elevated uncertainty, above-target inflation, and modest but stable labor market conditions, the same backdrop that produced a hold in both January and March.
What You Should Do Now
- Monitor the April 29 policy statement at 2:00 PM ET at Federal funds rate, the rate decision will be posted immediately.
- Watch Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET on April 29 for guidance on the pace of any future cuts.
- If the Fed cuts rates, expect commercial banks to begin revising savings account rates within 30 to 60 days, watch for updated APY notices from your bank.
- Update this page after April 29 when the decision is announced, the LIVE UPDATE box will reflect the actual outcome.
For context on how Federal Reserve rate decisions ripple through to deposit timing and bank posting schedules for all federal payments including Social Security, see our Federal Reserve policy explainer.
For the relationship between Fed rate decisions and when your deposits hit your account, see our Fed rate deposit timing article. For background on the Fed’s 2025 operating loss and what it means for its policy independence, see our Fed loss 2025 impact coverage.
And for the complete picture of how the Federal Reserve’s payment infrastructure connects to every federal deposit in your bank account, see the money movement system.
Editorial Note: Investozora is an independent news publication. This content is for informational purposes only. For official guidance, please visit federalreserve.gov.
