The FOMC’s October 2026 meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, with the policy statement and rate decision released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on October 28. This meeting does not include a Summary of Economic Projections or dot plot, and follows a run of holds at 3.50%–3.75% through the July 2026 meeting.
When Is the October 2026 FOMC Meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year on a pre-announced schedule. According to the Federal Reserve’s official meeting calendar, the October 2026 meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28.
As with every regularly scheduled FOMC meeting, the policy statement and interest rate decision are released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time on the second day of the meeting, which falls on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.
Unlike the March, June, September, and December meetings, the October meeting does not include a Summary of Economic Projections, meaning there is no updated dot plot showing individual committee members’ rate forecasts, and no post-meeting press conference is scheduled by default for a policy-statement-only meeting of this type.
Markets should expect a written statement and any accompanying remarks rather than a full press conference and updated projections.
Where Rates Stood Heading Into October
To understand what is genuinely at stake at the October meeting, it helps to track where the federal funds rate has been through the year. The Fed held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% through its July 2026 meeting, continuing a pattern of holds that has characterized policy through much of the year under Chair Kevin Warsh.
Our detailed coverage of the FOMC rate decision history through 2026 tracks each meeting’s outcome and the reasoning behind it.
Whether the Fed extends this hold, cuts, or raises rates at the October meeting depends heavily on the economic data released between the July and October meetings, particularly inflation readings and labor market indicators, since the September meeting’s own Summary of Economic Projections will have already signaled the committee’s updated expectations heading into October.
Key Economic Data the Fed Will Weigh
Several specific data releases carry outsized weight heading into any FOMC decision, and October 2026 is no exception.
The Consumer Price Index is the most closely watched inflation gauge ahead of any Fed meeting. Both the headline CPI figure and the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, factor into the committee’s assessment of whether inflation remains on a path toward its long-run target. Our guide to how the CPI is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics explains exactly what goes into this number each month.
The monthly jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gives the Fed its clearest read on labor market strength through the unemployment rate, nonfarm payroll growth, and wage growth figures.
A labor market that is cooling faster than expected typically strengthens the case for a rate cut, while persistently strong hiring and wage growth can push the committee toward holding rates steady for longer. Our analysis of how jobs reports affect the Fed’s rate path covers this relationship in more depth.
The Producer Price Index, which measures price changes at the wholesale level before they reach consumers, often serves as an early signal for where consumer inflation may be headed in the following months, making it a data point the Fed weighs even though it receives less public attention than CPI.
Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, the Fed’s officially preferred inflation gauge, also factors heavily into the committee’s internal deliberations, even though CPI tends to dominate public and media attention around each meeting.
The FOMC Blackout Period
In the days leading up to the October meeting, Federal Reserve officials, including regional bank presidents and Board of Governors members, observe what is known as the blackout period, during which they generally do not speak publicly about monetary policy.
This blackout typically begins roughly a week before the Saturday preceding the meeting and extends through the Thursday following the meeting’s conclusion. During this window, markets often see reduced Fed commentary and rely more heavily on incoming economic data and pre-blackout speeches to gauge likely outcomes.
What a Hold, Cut, or Hike Would Mean
A hold at 3.50% to 3.75% would extend the pattern seen through much of 2026, signaling that the committee views current policy as appropriately balanced against its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, pending further data.
A rate cut would ease borrowing costs across the economy, typically translating into somewhat lower rates on new mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, while also generally softening the yield offered on savings accounts and CDs. Our guide to how fed rate cuts affect savings rates explains this relationship, which works in the same direction but in reverse for a cut versus a hike.
A rate hike, while less likely given the pattern of holds through the year, would raise borrowing costs further and typically push yields on savings products higher, while increasing pressure on variable-rate debt such as credit cards and adjustable-rate mortgages tied to the prime rate. Our explainer on the prime rate and the Federal Reserve covers exactly how Fed policy changes translate into the rate banks charge their best customers.
How the October Decision Affects Treasury Yields and Social Security
Fed policy decisions ripple well beyond consumer loan rates. Treasury yields, particularly on the 10-year note, tend to move in anticipation of and in reaction to FOMC decisions, which in turn affects mortgage rates nationally. Our analysis of treasury yields and Fed policy explains this transmission mechanism in detail.
There is also a less obvious but genuine connection between Fed policy and Social Security. Because the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is calculated from a measure of consumer inflation, and Fed policy exists specifically to influence that same inflation trajectory.
The two systems are deeply intertwined even though they operate through entirely separate federal institutions. Our explainer on how the Federal Reserve and Social Security COLA interact walks through this connection step by step.
The 2026 FOMC Meeting Calendar in Context
Every FOMC meeting follows the same decision-making framework, but not every meeting carries the same level of market significance. Four meetings each year include the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the closely watched dot plot, while the remaining meetings focus primarily on the policy statement and interest rate decision.
Understanding where the October meeting fits within the annual calendar helps explain why investors often rely on earlier projections rather than expecting new long-term guidance in late October. The table below compares all eight scheduled FOMC meetings in 2026 and highlights which meetings include updated economic projections.
| Meeting | Dates | Includes SEP/Dot Plot |
|---|---|---|
| January | 27–28 | No |
| March | 17–18 | Yes |
| April | 28–29 | No |
| June | 16–17 | Yes |
| July | 28–29 | No |
| September | 15–16 | Yes |
| October | 27–28 | No |
| December | 8–9 | Yes |
Because October is a policy-statement-only meeting without an updated dot plot, markets often look to the preceding September meeting’s projections, combined with incoming data through October, as the clearest guide to what the committee is likely to do, rather than expecting fresh long-range guidance at the October meeting itself.
What Investors and Households Should Watch Between Now and the Meeting
In the weeks leading up to October 27–28, the most consequential releases are the September and any early-October CPI and jobs reports, since these represent the freshest data the committee will have in hand when it meets.
Mortgage rate shoppers, savers deciding whether to lock in a CD rate, and anyone with variable-rate debt should treat the days immediately following the 2:00 p.m. Eastern statement release on October 28 as the point when rate-sensitive markets are most likely to move.
How This Fits Into the Broader Federal Reserve Policy Picture
This preview sits within our full FOMC coverage cluster. For the complete history of 2026 rate decisions leading into this meeting, see our guide to Federal Reserve rate decisions explained, and for a broader look at how the Fed’s tools work overall, visit our foundational guide to how the Federal Reserve controls interest rates. For a complete map of how Fed policy connects to the wider system of Treasury operations and bank payments, see our central resource, How U.S. Money Moves.
What Time Is the October 2026 FOMC Rate Decision?
The Federal Open Market Committee will release its policy statement and interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, the second and final day of the meeting. This announcement includes the committee’s decision on the federal funds target range and any changes to its monetary policy stance.
Financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and Treasury yields, often react immediately after the statement is published. Investors and economists closely analyze the wording of the statement for clues about the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction.
Will the October 2026 FOMC Meeting Include a Press Conference?
The October 2026 FOMC meeting is not one of the four meetings scheduled to include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and updated dot plot. As a result, it typically does not feature the same formal post-meeting press conference that accompanies the March, June, September, and December meetings.
Instead, the Federal Reserve generally releases only its written policy statement and interest rate decision. While the Fed Chair may make public remarks at another time, investors should not expect a regularly scheduled press conference following this meeting.
What Was the Federal Funds Rate Before October 2026?
Heading into the October 2026 meeting, the federal funds target range stood at 3.50% to 3.75%, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain rates at its July 2026 meeting. This continued a broader pattern of holding interest rates steady while policymakers evaluated incoming inflation and labor market data.
The October decision will build on that policy backdrop rather than starting from a new rate level. Whether the Fed chooses to hold, cut, or raise rates depends on economic conditions leading up to the meeting.
Does the October FOMC Meeting Affect Social Security Payments?
The October FOMC decision does not directly change the amount of Social Security benefits paid during that month. Annual benefit increases are determined through the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), which is calculated using inflation data from the previous year and takes effect each January.
However, Federal Reserve interest rate policy influences inflation over time, meaning it can indirectly affect future COLA calculations. While there is no immediate impact on October benefit payments, the Fed’s actions can shape the economic conditions that influence future Social Security adjustments.
The Bottom Line
The October 2026 FOMC meeting will be an important checkpoint for financial markets as the Federal Reserve evaluates the latest inflation, employment, and economic growth data before deciding whether to hold, cut, or raise interest rates.
While this meeting does not include updated economic projections or a dot plot, its policy statement can still provide valuable insight into the committee’s thinking and the likely direction of future monetary policy.
The decision will influence borrowing costs, savings rates, Treasury yields, and broader financial markets, making it a key event for investors, businesses, and households alike.
